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本文挖掘中国经济波动的体制困境,试图为中国的经济波动勾勒出一个理论框架。目前的经济体制是波动形成的来源,经济体制中“信贷—投资—增长—通胀”四个互相契合的作用机制使得经济发展陷入体制困境当中,呈现出“活—乱—收—死”的形态。利用1978—2007年经济增长率、固定资产投资增长率、年末贷款余额增长率和消费者价格指数的年度数据,通过设置单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,本文验证了这一理论。我们的理论表明,中国的经济波动内生于其特殊的经济运作体制,因而也就面临两难处境。摆脱这一困境的出路在于体制变革和经济增长方式的转变。
This article explores the structural predicament of China’s economic fluctuations and attempts to outline a theoretical framework for the economic fluctuations in China. The current economic system is the source of the fluctuation. In the economic system, the four mutually compatible mechanisms of “credit - investment - growth - inflation” make the economic development fall into the institutional predicament, showing a “live-chaos-income-death ”Shape. Based on the annual data of economic growth rate, growth rate of fixed assets investment, growth rate of loan balance at year-end and consumer price index from 1978 to 2007, this paper verifies this by setting unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test A theory. Our theory shows that China’s economic turmoil is born into its special system of economic operation and therefore faces a dilemma. The way out of this dilemma lies in the transformation of the system and the mode of economic growth.