为更加方便、快速、准确地预测腐蚀立管的剩余寿命,提高GM(1,1)模型在腐蚀立管剩余寿命预测方面的实用性,对传统的GM(1,1)模型进行非等间距改进并建立腐蚀立管剩余寿命预测模型。将改进的非等间距GM(1,1)模型与中心逼近法、背景值优化法、逐步优化灰导数法、非等距信息逐步优化法、非等距幂预测法和原始优化法进行对比,并进行实例应用。结果表明,改进后的非等间距GM(1,1)模型的预测精度比其他改进的GM(1,1)模型的预测精度高,而且也适用于等间距数据的预测,扩大了GM(1,1)模型的有效预测范围,避免了概率统计法需要大量样本数据的弊端,提高了计算效率。 In order to more conveniently, quickly and accurately predict the residual life of corroded risers and improve the practicability of GM (1,1) model in predicting the remaining life of corroded risers, the conventional GM (1,1) Improve and establish the residual life prediction model of corrosion riser. The improved non-equidistant GM (1,1) model is compared with the center approximation method, the background value optimization method, the stepwise optimization gray derivative method, the non-equidistant information stepwise optimization method, the non-equidistant power prediction method and the original optimization method, And examples of applications. The results show that the improved prediction accuracy of the non-equidistant GM (1,1) model is higher than that of other improved GM (1,1) models and is also suitable for the prediction of equidistance data. The GM (1,1) 1) The effective prediction range of the model avoids the disadvantages of probabilistic statistics that require a large amount of sample data and improves the computational efficiency.