对外双边贸易失衡已严重制约中国对外贸易的健康发展。本文在回顾与评析贸易均衡已有研究的基础上,选取中国与114国在1995～2008年间的双边贸易面板数据,应用修正后的Zakir和Ismail(2010)模型来实证分析中国对外双边贸易均衡影响因素。结果表明,伙伴国与中国的相对实际国内生产总值和贸易加权距离增加将恶化中国贸易收支状况;伙伴国与中国的相对实际人均收入和双边实际汇率增加会改善中方贸易收支状况。据此,本文提出中国平衡对外双边贸易收支的地区与国别政策。 The bilateral trade imbalance between China and foreign countries has severely restricted the healthy development of China’s foreign trade. Based on the review and analysis of the existing research on trade balance, this paper selects the data of bilateral trade between China and 114 countries from 1995 to 2008, and uses the modified Zakir and Ismail (2010) model to analyze the equilibrium impact of China’s foreign trade factor. The results show that the relative real GDP and trade weighted distance between partner countries and China will worsen China’s trade balance; the relative real per capita income of partners and China and bilateral real exchange rate will improve China’s trade balance. Accordingly, this paper proposes China’s regional and country policies to balance the bilateral trade balance with foreign countries.