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本文应用三种需求预测方法，对我省中医卫生人力在９５年、２０００年的需求量进行了预测，并对三种方法的预测结果的准确度进行了比较，并在中国首次大规模实地应用了最新的卫生人力需求预测方法———医院模型法，对其优缺点及适用性进行了全面的评估，取得了很好的使用效果，对推动我国卫生人力资源的需求预测开辟了新的方法学，具有一定的借鉴意义。
In this paper, three demand forecasting methods are used to forecast the demand of Chinese medical manpower in the province in 1995 and 2000, and the accuracy of the forecast results of the three methods are compared. This is the first large-scale field application in China. The latest health manpower demand forecasting method—the hospital model method—has performed a comprehensive assessment of its advantages, disadvantages, and applicability, and has achieved good results, opening up new methods for promoting the demand forecast for health manpower resources in China. Learning, has certain reference significance.