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本文比较了中国与亚洲部分国家和地区经济发展阶段的不同表现,与这些国家相比,中国经济起步阶段人均收入水平更低,但是经济增速更加明显,同时,中国家庭消费占GDP的比重明显低于亚洲其他国家。这主要是因为中国居民收入较低,房价高企也是一个重要原因。但是消费水平偏低,导致中国经济结构在高速经济增长之后越来越不适应当前经济的发展。作者提出了一个按支出法核算的GDP恒等式,用以分析投资、消费和对外贸易等经济增长的影响,并区分了政府投资、私人投资和国有企业投资等因素的不同影响。作者认为,中国未来的经济发展形势将很大程度上取决于中国能否解决经济发展中的结构失衡问题。
This paper compares the different stages of economic development between China and some Asian countries. Compared with these countries, China’s per capita income in the initial stage of economic growth is even lower, but its economic growth is even more pronounced. Meanwhile, the share of China’s household consumption in GDP is significant Lower than other Asian countries. This is mainly due to the fact that the low incomes of Chinese residents and the high housing prices are also an important reason. However, the low level of consumption has led China’s economic structure to adapt more and more to the current economic development after its rapid economic growth. The authors propose a GDP identity calculated by the expenditure method to analyze the effects of investment, consumption and foreign trade on economic growth, and make a distinction between the different effects of such factors as government investment, private investment and state-owned enterprise investment. The author believes that the future economic development in China will depend to a large extent on whether China can solve the structural imbalance in its economic development.