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2017年上半年主要发达国家复苏好于预期,中国经济保持平稳增长,IMF、经合组织等均纷纷上调全球经济增长预期。但在全球经济复苏的背后,仍然存在着就业显著恢复与通胀低迷之间的矛盾、发达国家快速复苏与新兴市场国家艰难复苏的矛盾、长期潜在增长低迷与短周期复苏的矛盾,如何解决这三组矛盾,势必将成为全球经济能否持续复苏的主要挑战。
In the first half of 2017, the recovery in the major developed countries was better than expected. China’s economy maintained a steady growth. Both the IMF and the OECD increased their global economic growth expectations. However, behind the global economic recovery, there still exists the contradiction between the rapid recovery of employment and the downturn of inflation, the contradiction between the rapid recovery of developed countries and the difficult recovery of emerging market countries, the long-term potential growth downturn and short-cycle recovery and how to solve these three problems The contradiction between the two groups will surely become the major challenge to the sustainable recovery of the global economy.