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基于实物期权理论的评价方法可以适当地修正传统净现值法的缺陷,但其假定期望收益和投资成本为固定值,这在实际情况中很难预测准确。事实上,风电项目风险大、不确定因素多、收益的不确定性较高。因此,文章从模糊实物期权角度,把期望收益和投资成本看作是一定估计范围内的模糊数,应用了模糊实物期权方法对风电项目进行投资决策,以期更好地反映实际情况。
The evaluation method based on the real option theory can properly correct the defects of the traditional NPV method, but it assumes that the expected return and investment cost are fixed, which is difficult to predict accurately in practice. In fact, the risk of wind power projects is large, there are many uncertainties, and the uncertainty of returns is high. Therefore, the article from the perspective of fuzzy real options, the expected return and investment costs as a fuzzy number within a certain range of estimates, the application of fuzzy real options approach to wind power project investment decisions, in order to better reflect the actual situation.