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依据MGM(1,N)模型建模机理,通过数学推导获得新的模型背景值,并利用该背景值建立改进的MGM(1,N)模型。将改进的MGM(1,N)模型应用于赛果公路改建工程隧道围岩变形的预测,并引入等维灰数递补概念,以保证预测信息及时更新。通过与实测结果比较,表明改进模型在预测精度和稳定性方面较之常规MGM(1,N)模型有一定提高,且当围岩变形速率下降时,其预测值能较好的收敛。
According to MGM (1, N) model modeling mechanism, a new model background value is obtained through mathematical derivation, and an improved MGM (1, N) model is established by using the background value. The improved MGM (1, N) model is applied to the prediction of the surrounding rock deformation of the tunnel of the result highway reconstruction project, and the concept of equal dimension gray number is introduced to ensure that the prediction information is timely updated. Compared with the measured results, the results show that the improved model is better than the conventional MGM (1, N) model in predicting accuracy and stability, and the prediction value of the improved model can converge well when the deformation rate of surrounding rock decreases.