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探索捕获-再捕获法在吸毒人群规模估计工作中的应用。以英德市强制戒毒所登记的吸毒人数为基础,分别于2015年4月1日至2015年12月31日,开展两次捕获估计英德市吸毒人群规模。结果显示,根据不同的重复判定者标准,英德市吸毒人群数量范围为5 972~6 719人,分别是英德市公安机关登记在册吸毒人数的1.65~1.86倍。应用捕获-再捕获法估计吸毒人群规模,用时短,费用低,易于实施,为英德市艾滋病防治工作提供借鉴。
Application of Exploratory Capture - Reocapture Method in Drug Abusers Scale Estimation. Based on the number of drug abusers enrolled in the compulsory drug rehabilitation center in Yingde City, two rounds of capture and appraisal of the size of drug abusers in Yingde City were carried out from April 1, 2015 to December 31, 2015 respectively. The results showed that according to different criteria of repeated adjudication, the number of drug abusers in Yingde ranged from 572 to 6719, accounting for 1.65 to 1.86 times of the registered drug abusers in Yingde City. Application of capture - recapture method to estimate the scale of drug users, with short time, low cost and easy to implement, provide reference for AIDS prevention and control in Yingde City.