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为分析高速公路网运营风险,基于高速公路网构件上的交通流特性,用图论和复杂网络的相关知识,建立高速公路网的概念模型,并分析路网构件属性。采用风险理论分析路网运营风险的内涵,构建包括非均匀测度子集、连通性测度子集和抗毁性测度子集在内的路网运营风险测度集,鉴于运营风险测度之间的相互作用关系,提出一种路网运营风险评估方法。最后,以北京市高速公路网为例,验证该方法的有效性。结果表明,笔者所建立的高速公路网运营风险分析方法能够反映路网实际运营过程中存在的风险,用其取得的运营风险评估结果与实际路网运营状况较为一致。
In order to analyze the operation risk of expressway network, based on the traffic flow characteristics of expressway network components, the concept model of expressway network is established by using the theory of graph theory and complex network, and the properties of road network components are analyzed. The risk theory is used to analyze the connotation of the operation risk of road network, and the road network operation risk measure set including non-uniform measure subsets, connectivity measure subsets and invulnerability measure subsets is constructed. In view of the interaction between operational risk measures Relationship, put forward a road network operation risk assessment method. Finally, taking Beijing’s expressway network as an example, the validity of this method is verified. The results show that the method of risk analysis of expressway network established by the author can reflect the risks existing in the actual operation of the road network. The operational risk assessment results obtained by the author are consistent with those of the actual road network.