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航空器间冲突风险建模与分析是飞行冲突识别和评估的关键技术。以同航路不同高度层飞行的航空器为研究对象,考虑分别应用纵向/侧向/垂直间隔标准以及水平/垂直间隔标准两种情况,基于概率分析方法分别建立不同高度层飞行航空器间的冲突概率模型,并分别进行相对标称位移、间隔标准以及位置误差标准差对冲突概率影响的灵敏度分析;以航空器间相对标称位移变化趋势为基础,通过引入航空器间冲突风险严重度指数,进一步给出航空器间冲突风险模型。数值仿真算例验证了冲突风险建模与分析方法的可行性,以及灵敏度分析结论的准确性。
The modeling and analysis of conflict risk between aircraft are the key technologies in flight conflict identification and assessment. Taking the aircraft flying at the same flight path as the research object, two probability models of vertical / lateral / vertical separation and horizontal / vertical separation are applied respectively. Based on the probability analysis method, the collision probability models of different flight levels are established respectively The sensitivity analysis of the influence of the relative nominal displacement, interval standard and standard deviation of position error on the collision probability is carried out respectively. Based on the trend of the relative nominal displacements among the aircraft, the paper introduces the severity index of the conflict risk between the aircraft further, Inter-conflict risk model. The numerical simulation example verifies the feasibility of conflict risk modeling and analysis method and the accuracy of the sensitivity analysis conclusion.