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美国次贷危机过后,有关宏观审慎监管工具对金融稳定调控机制的研究逐渐成为了宏观经济研究中的焦点。有鉴于此,本文采用MS-VAR模型,探究了宏观审慎政策工具与经济增长和金融稳定间的非线性依存关系。研究结果表明:无论是在金融稳定区制亦或是金融脆弱区制内,贷款价值比和国内信贷/GDP的变化都会对金融体系的稳定性形成显著的调节作用,表明二者均是有效的宏观审慎工具;然而需要指出,尽管二者都能够对金融稳定起到一定的调节作用,但与此同时,也会在短期内对经济增长产生显著的抑制效应,这意味着使用宏观审慎工具调控金融体系的稳定性将会面临经济增长与金融稳定层面上的权衡取舍。
After the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the research on macro-prudential regulatory instruments on the regulatory mechanism of financial stability has gradually become the focus of macroeconomic research. In view of this, this article uses the MS-VAR model to explore the nonlinear dependence of macro-prudential policy instruments on economic growth and financial stability. The results show that both the loan-to-value ratio and domestic credit / GDP change will significantly adjust the stability of the financial system, both in the financial stability zone and the financial fragile zone, indicating that both are effective Macroprudential tools; however, it needs to be pointed out that although both can play a regulatory role in financial stability, at the same time, they will also have a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth in the short run, which means the use of macroprudential instruments to regulate The stability of the financial system will face the trade-off between economic growth and financial stability.