目前在美国乃至全世界讨论的话题都是美国即将进入又一轮衰退,即令人担忧的“二次探底”。但情况有可能更糟,像日本一样,美国未来20年都将无法逃脱“微型探底”(mini-dips)。1949年以来,美国经历了11次经济衰退,算起来每隔5年半就发生一次。因此就算事态平稳,美国距离下一次经济衰退也不过4年,即2014年。但美国的情况并不正常。公共债务在GDP中的比重快速增长,这通常只在 The topic currently being discussed in the United States and around the world is that the United States is about to enter yet another round of recession, namely the worrying “second dip.” But the situation may be worse. Like Japan, the United States will not escape “mini-dips” in the next 20 years. Since 1949, the United States has experienced 11 economic recessions, counting once every 5 and a half years. So even if the situation is stable, the United States is only 4 years away from the next recession in 2014. But the situation in the United States is not normal. The share of public debt in GDP is growing rapidly, usually only at