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本文应用:1.逐步判别(可自行从诸多因子中挑选出与马尾松毛虫种群变动相关的因子);2.模糊优先比(可将新一年的因子与过去年份相比,以最相似年的虫情做为新一年的预报);3.数字滤波(可将种群观测值中非主导部份滤除,保留主导部份做预报)三种数学方法,对马尾松毛虫预测预报进行研究。这三种方法各有特点,适用于不同情况。本文研究以广西钦州为例,对4年预报结果,逐步判别全部正确,模糊优先比3年正确,数字滤波趋势正确。
This article applies: 1. step by step (from their own choice from a number of factors associated with changes in population of Dendrolimus punctatus); 2. fuzzy priority ratio (new year factor compared with the previous year, with the most similar year Of the worm as the forecast for the new year); 3 digital filtering (non-dominant part of the population can filter out the main part of the forecast to retain) three mathematical methods to study the prediction of caterpillar failure . These three methods have their own characteristics, suitable for different situations. This paper takes Qinzhou in Guangxi Province as an example, all of the four-year prediction results are correctly identified, the fuzzy priority is better than three years, and the digital filtering trend is correct.