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文章利用中国1991~2010年监测地区婴儿死亡率数据,运用动态数列分析婴儿死亡率变化规律,预测未来发展趋势,并探索了监测评估标准。研究发现,“八五”、“十五”期间婴儿死亡率平均下降的绝对量较大,且农村平均下降的绝对量大于城市,肺炎、腹泻、痢疾等感染性疾病及出生窒息、神经管畸形、颅内出血等非感染性疾病的防治效果明显,对中国婴儿死亡率下降贡献较大。经综合分析比较,作者选择了婴儿死亡率最佳预测模型并预测了2011~2020年婴儿死亡率。文章认为,中国婴儿死亡率呈下降趋势,将从快速下降向缓慢下降转型,“十二五”期间是相对快速下降的机遇期,未来下降速度将渐趋缓慢,预测“十三五”后期开始将进入缓慢下降阶段。
Based on the data of infant mortality in the monitoring area of China from 1991 to 2010, the article uses the dynamic series to analyze the variation of infant mortality rate, predict the future development trend, and explores the monitoring and evaluation standards. The study found that the absolute decrease in infant mortality rates during the “1985” and “15 ”period was relatively large and the absolute decline in rural areas was greater than in urban areas, pneumonia, diarrhea, dysentery and other infectious diseases and birth asphyxia , Neural tube defects, intracranial hemorrhage and other non-infectious diseases prevention and treatment effect is obvious, contributing to the decline of infant mortality in China. After comprehensive analysis and comparison, the author chose the best prediction model of infant mortality and predicted the infant mortality rate from 2011 to 2020. The article holds that the infant mortality rate in China is on a downward trend and will shift from rapid decline to slow decline. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the infant mortality rate will be a relatively rapid decline. The rate of decline will gradually slow down in the future. It is predicted that “ ”Late start will enter a slow decline phase.