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依据黑河上游流域内获取的树木年轮样本和该河上游及出山口水文站径流资料,利用树木年轮水文学的原理和方法,建立了年轮年表.年表与河流径流量的相关关系,重建了黑河上游及出山口径流.得出在距今1319a以来,黑河莺落峡出山口最大年径流量为26.74×10~8m3/a,最小为6.44×10~8m3/a,年际变率Cv=4.17,多年平均为15.284×10~8m3/a.特枯、偏枯水年以及平水年、特、偏丰水年出现的概率分别为18.9％,23.9％,20.5％.19.0％,17.7％.相对而言,枯水年稍多一些.持续5a以上的枯水段出现过37次,共358a,持续最长的枯水段达22a;丰水段为38次,共390a,最长达39a.这两种现象仅占总数的一半,另一半是2～3a间的丰、枯水循环和平水期.小周期循环是出山口径流量的主要变化方式.同时也有较明显的中、长周期变化.据历史文献记载中所描述张掖（原甘州）旱涝灾害与出山口年径流量的对比中,旱灾的吻合率高达80％以上.而涝灾也在60％以上.从中长周期的变化趋势来看,目前在全球气候变暖背景下,出山口径流量正处在一个百年尺度的丰水期中.这一结果是目前我国在利用树木年轮重建千年以上长度水文资料的首例工作.它为黑河流域经济发展、生态环境保护以及合理利用地表水资源提供重要科学依据.
Based on the tree-ring samples obtained from the upper reaches of the Heihe River basin and the hydrological station runoff data from the upper reaches of the Heihe River, the annual ring annual chronology was established by using the principles and methods of tree ring hydrology. The correlation between chronology and river runoff , Rebuilt the runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe River and out of the mountain.The results show that since 1319a, the maximum annual runoff of the outflow from Yingluo Xiahe reaches 26.74 × 10 ~ 8m3 / a and the minimum is 6.44 × 10 ~ 8m3 / a, The average Cv was 4.17 and the annual average was 15.284 × 10 ~ 8m3 / a. The probabilities of special dry, dry and dry years, 18.9%, 23.9%, 20.5%, 19.0%, 17.7 Relatively speaking, the dry years are a little bit longer, and there are 37 times of dry season lasting more than 5a, 358a in total, and the longest continuous dry season reaches 22a, and the wet season is 38 times with 390a, the longest Up to 39a. Both of these two phenomena account for only half of the total and the other half are abundance, dry-water cycle and flat-water period from 2 to 3a. The small cycle is the main change of the runoff volume. According to historical records described in Zhangye (formerly Ganzhou) Droughts and floods and outfall annual runoff contrast, the drought The rate of up to 80% or more.While the flood is more than 60% .From the long-term changes in the trend of view, at present in the context of global warming, the outlet flow is in a hundred years of high rainfall period .This result It is the first case that our country rebuild the hydrological data of more than a thousand years by using tree rings and provide important scientific basis for the economic development, ecological environment protection and the rational utilization of surface water resources in the Heihe River basin.