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本研究借鉴以往的患者就医选择行为研究成果,以沈阳市居民和医疗机构的相关数据为基础,利用AnyLogic平台进行多主体建模与系统动力学混合仿真实验,探索患者就医选择的影响因素,并重点分析社会医疗保险政策的调整对沈阳市患者就医选择行为的宏观影响。本文分别设计了居民模型、疾病模型和医院模型三个子模型,并根据这三个子模型构造了患者就医选择状态图,然后利用沈阳市的相关统计数据设计了三组仿真实验。经过验证,三组实验数据其相对误差和均分百分比误差值均表明模型具有一定的有效性和预测性。此外,笔者根据仿真实验结论提出了若干条改善患者就医选择的对策建议。
Based on the data of residents and medical institutions in Shenyang City, this study uses the AnyLogic platform to carry out a mixed simulation experiment of multi-agent modeling and system dynamics to explore the influencing factors of patients’ medical treatment choices Focus on the analysis of the social health insurance policy adjustment of Shenyang City, the macro-choice of medical treatment behavior. In this paper, we design three sub-models of inhabitant model, disease model and hospital model respectively. According to the three sub-models, we construct the patient selection chart, and then use the relevant statistical data of Shenyang City to design three sets of simulation experiments. After verification, the relative error and mean percentage error of the three groups of experimental data show that the model has some validity and predictability. In addition, according to the conclusions of simulation experiments, the author put forward some countermeasures and suggestions for improving the choice of patients for medical treatment.