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国际能源署(IEA)、美国能源信息署(EIA)、石油输出国组织(OPEC)、俄罗斯科学院能源研究所(ERI RAS)等机构和英国石油公司(BP)、埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)等石油公司均长期从事能源统计与展望分析研究工作,具有较高的影响力。对上述能源机构和石油公司最新的能源展望报告进行总结分析,对比了不同报告的异同点,归纳梳理了2030年前油气行业发展趋势。研究总结得出:经济社会发展将继续推动全球能源需求增长,能源利用将更加清洁高效;石油市场供需总体相对宽松,国际油价低位回升企稳;天然气发展进入黄金时代;中国能源消费增速放缓,结构逐步优化;美、俄等国调整能源政策,消费国能源进口多元化更加明显。中国石油公司需要顺应趋势,坚定不移发展油气主业,抓紧制定基于国际化视野的天然气业务发展战略;加快技术和商业模式创新,把握低碳新能源业务市场机遇;加强研究并发布能源行业发展趋势,提升行业影响力和话语权。
IEA, EIA, OPEC and ERI RAS, as well as BP, Exxon Mobil, Other oil companies have long been engaged in energy statistics and prospect analysis and research work, with high influence. The above energy agencies and oil companies report the latest energy outlook summary analysis, compared the similarities and differences between the different reports, summed up the development of the oil and gas industry by 2030 trends. The study concluded that: economic and social development will continue to promote global energy demand growth, energy use will be cleaner and more efficient; the overall oil market supply and demand is relatively loose, the international oil prices rebounded to stabilize from low; gas development into the golden age; China’s energy consumption growth slowed down, The structure is gradually optimized; the United States, Russia and other countries to adjust energy policy, consumer energy imports more diversified. CNPC needs to adapt to the trend, unswervingly develop its oil and gas industry, make efforts to formulate a natural gas business development strategy based on an international perspective, speed up technological and business model innovation and seize market opportunities in low-carbon and new energy business, and strengthen research and release of energy industry development Trend, enhance the industry influence and voice.