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为了解和研究气候变暖背景下青海省中小河流气象灾害,减小灾害损失,本研究以隆务河流域为例,基于2001—2011年逐日气象资料、水文资料、洪水灾情资料对HBV模型进行参数率定和验证,并根据典型洪水过程对参数进行了优化,率定期、验证期NASH系数分别达到0.69、0.83,表明HBV模型在该地区有较好的适用性。同时根据流量水位数据,结合HBV模型建立了降水-流量-水位关系,得出洪水上涨时流量与水位两者的协同性通过了α=0.001的显著性检验,并研究了前期不同水位下24h隆务河流域临界面雨量的预警指标,临界雨量值随前期水位升高而减小,两者变化呈现了非线性的特征。
In order to understand and study the meteorological disasters of medium and small rivers in Qinghai Province under the background of climate warming and to reduce the disaster losses, this study takes Longwu River Basin as an example. Based on the daily meteorological data, hydrological data and flood disaster data from 2001 to 2011, Parameter calibration and verification, and the parameters were optimized according to the typical flood process. The rate of NASH was 0.69 and 0.83 respectively, indicating that the HBV model has good applicability in this region. At the same time, based on the data of flow and water level, the relationship between precipitation and flow-water was established based on HBV model. It was found that the synergy of flow and water level passed the significance test of α = 0.001 when the flood rose, The forewarning index of critical rainfall at the river basin, the critical rainfall value decreases with the increase of the previous water level, and the change of the two shows a nonlinear characteristic.