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煤炭行业作为产业链的上游产业,其价格波动将会影响相关产业的产品价格,研究煤炭价格波动对相关产业产品价格的影响对企业预测和决策具有指导意义。采用2003—2013年7月的月度数据,运用VAR模型及脉冲响应函数分析了煤炭价格波动对相关产业产品价格的影响。结果表明:煤炭价格波动会对下游行业造成冲击,且持续较长时间;煤炭价格波动对有色金属冶炼及压延加工业的影响较大,对电力、热力的生产和供应业的影响较小。
As the upstream industry in the industrial chain, the price volatility of the coal industry will affect the product prices of related industries. It is instructive to study the impact of coal price fluctuations on the price of related industry products for the enterprises to forecast and make decisions. Based on monthly data from July 2003 to July 2013, VAR model and impulse response function were used to analyze the effect of coal price fluctuation on the prices of related industry products. The results show that the volatility of coal price will impact the downstream industries for a long time. The fluctuation of coal prices has a great influence on smelting and rolling of non-ferrous metals, and has little impact on the production and supply of electricity and heat.