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IPAT模型在研究经济社会发展对自然环境影响作用中被广泛应用。本文选取2003—2014年全国地级及以上城市面板数据利用IPAT模型并引入自然气候条件分析城市碳排放情况。研究发现,理论上,人口规模、人均GDP、能源效率等因素对城市碳排放作用形式均为倒U型,且在不同自然气候背景下具有差异。进一步结合当前现状研究发现,实际上,自然对数形式的人口规模在全样本和中温带、人均GDP在所有样本下对碳排放量的影响以倒U左侧的形式存在;能源效率的影响则以倒U右侧的形式存在。另外,人口增长所引起的碳排放量增长,暖温带>亚热带、中温带>全样本;人均GDP增长所引起的碳排放量增长:中温带>暖温带>全样本>亚热带;能源效率提高所引起的碳排放量降低:暖温带>中温带>全样本>亚热带。最后,根据本文研究结论,对城市碳减排政策进行相应探讨。
The IPAT model is widely used in studying the impact of economic and social development on the natural environment. This paper selects the urban panel data of prefecture level and above in China from 2003 to 2014 and uses the IPAT model and introduces the natural climatic conditions to analyze the urban carbon emissions. The study found that in theory, the effect of population size, per capita GDP, energy efficiency and other forms of urban carbon emissions are inverted U-shaped, and in different natural climate backgrounds have differences. Combining with the current status quo, we find that, in fact, the natural logarithm of the population size is in the whole sample and the temperate zone, and the impact of per capita GDP on carbon emissions under all samples exists in the form of an inverted U to the left. The effect of energy efficiency In the form of inverted U right side. In addition, the increase in carbon emissions caused by population growth, the warm temperate> subtropical, temperate> full sample; per capita GDP growth caused by carbon emissions growth: the temperate zone> warm temperate> full sample> subtropical; caused by increased energy efficiency Lower carbon emissions: warm temperate> temperate> full sample> subtropical. Finally, according to the conclusions of this paper, the city carbon emission reduction policies are discussed accordingly.