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情景规划(Scenario Planning)是一套在高度不确定环境中帮助企业进行战略规划的方法,即对未来可能发生的各种情景进行设想,并提前制定应对预案。一旦设想情景出现,企业可快速反应,实施预案。情景规划最早应用于军事规划,但作为企业战略管理工具为世人所重视,还是源于壳牌对1973年石油危机的成功应对。在40多年情景规划应用历史中,壳牌围绕地缘政治、经济发展、科技进步、社会文化、能源与环境等进
Scenario Planning is a set of strategies to help companies strategize in a highly uncertain environment by envisioning the scenarios that may occur in the future and by planning ahead. Once the scenario is envisioned, businesses can react quickly and implement the plan. Scenario planning first applied to military planning, but as a strategic management tool for the world attention, or from Shell’s successful response to the 1973 oil crisis. In the more than 40 years of scenario planning and application history, Shell has been focusing on geopolitics, economic development, scientific and technological progress, social culture, energy and environment