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反倾销调查是否会产生导致被控倾销国出口至第三方市场数量下降的所谓“恐惧效应”?运用统计和计量的手段回答这一问题的逻辑和方法是科学判定反倾销贸易效应的技术关键。本文以欧盟对华无缝钢管以及独联体国家对华彩涂板反倾销调查案件为例,在大量涉案贸易数据的基础上,遵循先遴选后排除的思路,运用虚拟变量模型、Granger因果关系检验和分位数回归等方法和手段,通过对比分析,在示范性地演示反倾销调查“恐惧效应”判定方法和程序从而为国际贸易活动中类似效应的检验提供可能评测范式的同时,回答了反倾销调查是否必然存在“恐惧效应”这一问题。
Anti-dumping investigation will lead to the export of controlled dumping countries to the third-party market decline in the so-called “fear effect”? The use of statistical and measurement means to answer the logic and methods of this issue is the scientific determination of the technical key to anti-dumping trade effect. Taking the case of EU anti-dumping investigation on seamless steel tubes in China and CIS countries in China as an example, based on a large number of trade data involved in the case, this paper follows the idea of first exclusion and selects dummy variables model, Granger causality test And quantile regression and other means and means, through comparative analysis, demonstrating the anti-dumping investigation “fear effect ” determination methods and procedures to test for similar effects in international trade activities to provide a possible evaluation paradigm at the same time, the answer Anti-dumping investigation is whether there is necessarily “fear effect” this issue.