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利用6个全球/区域气候模式和VIC模型,预估了IPCC RCPs情景下2021—2050年淮河干流蚌埠水文站(吴家渡断面)的日流量过程。在此基础上,运用Copula函数构建了蚌埠市暴雨与淮河上游洪水遭遇概率模型,分析了RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下不同重现期暴雨和洪水组合遭遇概率的变化趋势。结果表明,2021—2050年多模式预估上游洪水与城市暴雨遭遇的概率较基准期(1971—2000年)有所增大,具有较高的一致性,平均增幅46%~79%。暴雨与洪水遭遇概率的增大,将会增加未来蚌埠市防洪工作的难度。
Using six global / regional climate models and VIC models, the daily flow of the Bhubu Hydrological Station (Wujiadu Section) of the Huaihe River mainstream from 2021 to 2050 in the IPCC RCPs scenario was estimated. On this basis, the Copula function is used to construct the probability model of rainstorm in Bengbu and the upper reaches of Huaihe River. The probability of encountering rainstorm and flood in RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios is analyzed. The results show that in 2021-2050, the probability of multi-model prediction of upstream floods and urban torrential rains is higher than that of the reference period (1971-2000), with a high degree of consistency with an average increase of 46% -79%. The increasing probability of heavy rains and floods will increase the difficulty of flood control in Bengbu in the future.