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目的采用移动百分位数法开展宝鸡市手足口病预警界值分析,确定手足口病的预警界值,提高传染病预警效率和能力。方法利用宝鸡市2010-2014年手足口病疫情数据建立数据库,采用移动百分位数法建立预警模型,通过计算灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值和阴性预测值及绘制ROC曲线,优选宝鸡市手足口病最佳预警界值。结果综合平衡预警的灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值等指标后,将P65作为宝鸡市手足口病的预警界值。结论宝鸡市手足口病预警界值可适当降低,提高预警系统的灵敏度,及早发现聚集性疫情,采取有效控制措施,防止暴发疫情的发生。因此,传染病预警界值的设定应根据传染病发病特点并结合当地疫情信息进行优选,以提高传染病疫情监测的预警能力。
Objective To adopt the mobile percentile method to carry out the precautionary boundary analysis of hand-foot-mouth disease in Baoji City, determine the precautionary boundary of hand-foot-mouth disease and improve the efficiency and ability of early warning of infectious diseases. Methods Based on the data of HFMD in 2010-2014 in Baoji City, an early warning model was set up by moving the percentile method. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated and the ROC curve was drawn. Stuttering best warning threshold. Results P65 was used as the precautionary threshold for hand-foot-mouth disease in Baoji City after comprehensively balancing the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of early-warning. Conclusion The threshold of hand-foot-mouth disease in Baoji may be lowered appropriately, the sensitivity of early-warning system should be improved, the epidemic of agglomeration should be detected early and effective control measures should be taken to prevent the occurrence of outbreak. Therefore, the setting of the pre-warning threshold of infectious diseases should be based on the characteristics of infectious diseases and the information of local epidemics, so as to improve the early-warning capability of infectious disease surveillance.