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本文将我国海洋渔业人均碳排放驱动因素分解为碳排放系数、能源强度、产业结构和产业规模,运用LMDI分解法对2003—2013年我国海洋渔业碳排放进行实证研究,得出结论:我国海洋渔业人均碳排放的总增量共计0.157万吨,碳排放系数、能源强度、产业结构和产业规模的累积效应分别为0.262、-1.131、-0.274和1.3万吨;综合考虑逐年和累积效应,产业规模是正向驱动因素,能源强度是负向驱动因素,而产业结构和碳排放系数的驱动效应具有不稳定性;通过控制海洋捕捞业的比重以及碳排放系数的变化率,能够使产业结构和碳排放系数因素稳定为负向驱动因素;降低海洋捕捞业比重、促进海洋捕捞渔船改造及作业方式转型、提高海洋捕捞效率、提高贝藻类养殖比重等是抑制海洋渔业碳排放的深层驱动因素。
In this paper, the driving factors of China’s marine fishery carbon emissions per capita are decomposed into carbon emission factors, energy intensity, industrial structure and industrial scale. By using LMDI method to study China’s marine fishery carbon emissions from 2003 to 2013, this paper concludes that: The total incremental carbon emissions per capita totaled 0.157 million tons, and the cumulative effects of carbon emission factors, energy intensity, industrial structure and industrial scale were 0.262, -1.131, -0.274 and 1.3 million tons respectively. Considering the yearly and cumulative effects, the industrial scale Is a positive driving factor, energy intensity is a negative driving factor, and the driving effect of industrial structure and carbon emission coefficient is not stable. By controlling the proportion of marine fisheries and the rate of change of carbon emission coefficient, the industrial structure and carbon emissions Coefficient factors are stable and negative factors. Decreasing the proportion of marine fisheries, promoting the transformation of marine fishing vessels and operating modes, improving the efficiency of marine fishing, and increasing the proportion of shellfish farming are all the deep-rooted driving forces to curb carbon emissions from marine fisheries.