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本文基于2002年、2005年、2007年和2010年投入产出表和UN Comtrade数据库数据,采用VSS和FH两种方法测算我国16个制造业的外包率,并对来源于美国、日本和中国香港的外包率进行比较和分析。测算结果表明:我国承接的各制造业外包比率总体上呈现出先上升、后持续下降的变化趋势,而美国、日本和中国香港三地的制造外包率及其变化趋势则存在较大差异。其中,美国制造外包比率最高,中国香港次之,日本最低。在此基础上,通过构建劳动需求模型,对我国制造业总体外包、不同来源国外包的动态就业效应进行检验。结果显示,制造外包对我国就业有正向拉动作用,而外包与工资的相互作用部分抵消了外包对就业的正效应;承接美国、日本和中国香港的制造外包对我国劳动就业均存在积极影响,其中,承接日本的制造外包对我国就业拉动作用最大。
Based on the input-output tables of 2002, 2005, 2007 and 2010 and the data of UN Comtrade database, this paper measures the outsourcing rates of 16 manufacturing industries in China by using VSS and FH methods, and compares the outsourcing rates of 16 manufacturing industries from the United States, Japan and Hong Kong The outsourcing rates are compared and analyzed. The calculation results show that the manufacturing outsourcing ratios undertaken by China generally show the trend of first rising and then continuing to decline. However, the manufacturing outsourcing rates in the United States, Japan and Hong Kong are quite different. Among them, the United States outsourcing the highest rate of manufacturing, followed by Hong Kong, China, Japan, the lowest. On this basis, through the construction of labor demand model, we test the dynamic employment effects of outsourcing in manufacturing industry and outsourcing in different countries. The results show that manufacturing outsourcing has a positive effect on employment in our country, and the interaction between outsourcing and wages offset the positive effect of outsourcing on employment. Manufacturing outsourcing undertaking the United States, Japan and Hong Kong, China, has a positive impact on China’s employment, Among them, to undertake Japan’s manufacturing outsourcing pull the greatest contribution to our employment.