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地震后的人员伤亡快速评估,对于地震应急响应具有重要意义。该文运用基于地震场景重建的经验模型,研究了云南省的地震人员死亡率,并以鲁甸地震为例,对震后死亡人数进行了估算。收集了云南地区1970年至2008年至少造成1人伤亡的37个地震案例,基于地震烈度分布图和人口密度数据,得到地震案例各个烈度区的暴露人口数;运用美国地质调查局基于地震烈度的人口死亡率模型对人口死亡数进行估算,随后比较人口死亡估算值和人口死亡实际数的差值,对差值进行最优化求解使其最小,从而确定模型的参数值,得到云南省的地震人口死亡率。计算得到鲁甸6.5级地震人员死亡数为308,与实际死亡人数(617)处于同一量级,该地震属于特别重大地震,应急响应级别为I级,与实际情况相符。结果表明,基于地震场景重建的死亡率经验模型对于中国省市地区尺度的震后死亡人数快速评估,具有较好的适用性。
Rapid assessment of casualties after an earthquake is of great significance to earthquake emergency response. Based on the empirical model based on the seismic scene reconstruction, this paper studies the earthquake death rate in Yunnan province. Taking the Ludian earthquake as an example, the post-earthquake death toll is estimated. Thirty-seven earthquake cases that caused at least one casualty in Yunnan Province from 1970 to 2008 were collected. Based on the seismic intensity distribution and population density data, the number of exposed population in each intensity region of the earthquake case was obtained. Based on the seismic intensity of the US Geological Survey Population mortality model to estimate the number of deaths, and then compare the estimated population deaths and the actual number of deaths, the difference between the optimal solution to minimize it to determine the model parameters, the earthquake population in Yunnan Province mortality rate. The calculated death toll of Luduam 6.5 earthquake is 308, which is in the same order of magnitude as the actual death toll (617). The earthquake belongs to a special major earthquake and the level of emergency response is Level I, which is consistent with the actual situation. The results show that the empirical model of mortality based on seismic scene reconstruction has a good applicability to rapid assessment of post-earthquake death toll in China’s provincial and municipal scales.