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Egypt’s president Mohamed Morsi was accompanied by more than 80 Egyptian business people on a trip to Beijing in late August – a clear sign that the new Egyptian leader was intent on enhancing economic relations.
Walking on the red carpet alongside Chinese president Hu Jintao, Morsi’s mind must have been on how China, a global economic power, could help Egypt wade through the economic quagmire that sparked the country’s revolution and brought an end to the three-decade regime of former president Hosni Mubarak. Egypt’s population is hopeful that life will be different under Morsi.
Challenges ahead
Egypt’s problems are numerous. The World Bank projects that the economy will grow at 2.5 percent this year and at 3.5 percent in 2013. At a time when the country’s growth rate needs stimulation to create jobs and put money in the pockets of citizens, this cannot be good news for Morsi.
Unemployment is soaring at 12 percent, and the World Bank has stated that there is“significant potential upward risk.”
Foreign direct investment has been dwindling, and Bretton Woods puts the figure at $0.9 billion in 2011. International reserves have also been falling. There’s also the little matter of a significant budget deficit approaching $36 billion.
“Egypt faces considerable challenges, including the need to restart growth and reduce budget and balance of payments deficits. getting the country’s economy back on track and raising the living standards for all will not be an easy task. The Egyptian people have legitimate expectations for a better life and greater social justice.” That’s how the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Christina Lagarde, summed up the situation, after her visit to Egypt in August.
Rod Wye, an associate fellow for Asia, at Chatham House, a global think-tank, believes Morsi’s trip to China was geared toward tightening ties with Beijing and addressing some of the points raised by Lagarde.
“I suspect that [Morsi] was hoping to win both commercial and investment contracts from China, which would help shore up the Egyptian economy as it strives to get going again,” Wye told ChinAfrica.
“China is both a large potential market and a large potential investor for Egypt,” he added.
In this regard it was a big help to both countries that Chinese investors remained in Egypt during the revolution.
Peter Wanyonyi, a Kenyan information scientist based in the Middle East, with deep grounding in international affairs, echoed the views of Rod Wye. Wanyonyi said of particular interest to China was Egypt’s control of the suez Canal – a key artery for Chinese vessels to get into the Middle East and the European market.
Morsi’s decision to venture into China so early in his administration, actually, his first trip outside the Middle East, signals a shift in foreign policy that unlike Hosni Mubarak, whose first instinct was to always look West, he was ready to look East, and might do so, for some time to come. The United states finds itself now vying for influence over its traditional ally in the Middle East.
Nile question
It is also feasible that the waters of the River Nile were connected with the visit to Beijing. The Nile is Egypt’s lifeline, and when Ethiopia decided to build the huge grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in gibe, leaders in Cairo became predictably uneasy at the thought of a possible reduction in the volume of this vital water supply flowing to Egypt.
Wanyonyi noted that, because China provides loans to Ethiopia and sudan to build dams, the issue was definitely going to come up in talks with the Chinese administration. to expect sudan and Ethiopia to stop their projects just to fulfill Egypt’s interests would be nave.
“Their interest in dam construction is, at this point, purely economic. Thus, Egypt must stress the importance of this issue to its most basic national interest and assert its historical right to a vital resource,” noted Nabil Fahmy, Dean of the school of global Affairs and public policy at the American University in Cairo, in an essay published in The Cairo Review of Global Affairs.
His advice to the Morsi administration is that Egypt should work with Ethiopia and sudan, and strike deals on how to stop the damming of the Nile. He also hinted that the process might involve “multilateral trade agreements” and that’s where China could be called upon to negotiate with the other countries on behalf of Egypt. While this may be a long shot, given the high stakes involved, it is not beyond Egypt to do so.
Fuel resources
There is also the question of fuel resources. Both Wye and Wanyonyi told ChinAfrica, in separate interviews, that China’s relationship with Egypt will assure China of oil and gas resources from the Middle East, needed to fuel its economic growth.
“The Mediterranean is now a hotbed of natural gas: turkey, Cyprus, Israel and Lebanon have all found massive quantities of natural gas in their waters. Only Egypt has not developed its gas potential in that sea,”said Wanyonyi, adding that China is keen to be involved in this opportunity.
On the same issue, Wye said China welcomed Morsi as the leader of one of the key Arab nations based on its growing interest in the Middle East.
“With China increasingly becoming involved and interested in developments in the Middle East, both because of its growing dependence on Middle Eastern oil, and because of its cautious attitude to political change in the Middle East, China will probably have wanted to reassure itself that president Morsi’s government would continue to provide stability,” said Wye.
But that said, the Egypt-China partnership is also part of a wider foreign policy target that according to Egyptian scholar, Nabil Fahmy, who served as envoy to Japan and the United states under Mubarak, will involve getting Brazil, Russia, India, China and south Africa, in the loop.
“Egypt must also seek to court those extra-regional emerging powers - especially the BRICs grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and south Africa - whose growing economic and strategic clout have already lent considerable weight to their international policies,” Nabil wrote in an essay published in september. “These relationships will prove a great boon if bolstered by successful domestic reform and a position of regional leadership,” he wrote.
On this foreign policy angle, the thinking in Africa is that a stable Egypt will help China in its relationships with other member countries under the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation.
Wye believes that China sees Egypt as“completely crucial” to its continental policy with Africa. Egypt, for its part, has to try and recover its traditional power as a leader in thought, and as a powerbroker in the Middle East.
Morsi left China with a $200 million investment loan, a one-off $70.31 million grant aimed at infrastructure development and environmental projects and a gift of 300 police cars to help bolster Egypt’s security. This and other cooperative agreements signed could be crucial to solidify his first term in office, by assisting the mending of Egypt’s broken infrastructure and stalled development.
Walking on the red carpet alongside Chinese president Hu Jintao, Morsi’s mind must have been on how China, a global economic power, could help Egypt wade through the economic quagmire that sparked the country’s revolution and brought an end to the three-decade regime of former president Hosni Mubarak. Egypt’s population is hopeful that life will be different under Morsi.
Challenges ahead
Egypt’s problems are numerous. The World Bank projects that the economy will grow at 2.5 percent this year and at 3.5 percent in 2013. At a time when the country’s growth rate needs stimulation to create jobs and put money in the pockets of citizens, this cannot be good news for Morsi.
Unemployment is soaring at 12 percent, and the World Bank has stated that there is“significant potential upward risk.”
Foreign direct investment has been dwindling, and Bretton Woods puts the figure at $0.9 billion in 2011. International reserves have also been falling. There’s also the little matter of a significant budget deficit approaching $36 billion.
“Egypt faces considerable challenges, including the need to restart growth and reduce budget and balance of payments deficits. getting the country’s economy back on track and raising the living standards for all will not be an easy task. The Egyptian people have legitimate expectations for a better life and greater social justice.” That’s how the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Christina Lagarde, summed up the situation, after her visit to Egypt in August.
Rod Wye, an associate fellow for Asia, at Chatham House, a global think-tank, believes Morsi’s trip to China was geared toward tightening ties with Beijing and addressing some of the points raised by Lagarde.
“I suspect that [Morsi] was hoping to win both commercial and investment contracts from China, which would help shore up the Egyptian economy as it strives to get going again,” Wye told ChinAfrica.
“China is both a large potential market and a large potential investor for Egypt,” he added.
In this regard it was a big help to both countries that Chinese investors remained in Egypt during the revolution.
Peter Wanyonyi, a Kenyan information scientist based in the Middle East, with deep grounding in international affairs, echoed the views of Rod Wye. Wanyonyi said of particular interest to China was Egypt’s control of the suez Canal – a key artery for Chinese vessels to get into the Middle East and the European market.
Morsi’s decision to venture into China so early in his administration, actually, his first trip outside the Middle East, signals a shift in foreign policy that unlike Hosni Mubarak, whose first instinct was to always look West, he was ready to look East, and might do so, for some time to come. The United states finds itself now vying for influence over its traditional ally in the Middle East.
Nile question
It is also feasible that the waters of the River Nile were connected with the visit to Beijing. The Nile is Egypt’s lifeline, and when Ethiopia decided to build the huge grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in gibe, leaders in Cairo became predictably uneasy at the thought of a possible reduction in the volume of this vital water supply flowing to Egypt.
Wanyonyi noted that, because China provides loans to Ethiopia and sudan to build dams, the issue was definitely going to come up in talks with the Chinese administration. to expect sudan and Ethiopia to stop their projects just to fulfill Egypt’s interests would be nave.
“Their interest in dam construction is, at this point, purely economic. Thus, Egypt must stress the importance of this issue to its most basic national interest and assert its historical right to a vital resource,” noted Nabil Fahmy, Dean of the school of global Affairs and public policy at the American University in Cairo, in an essay published in The Cairo Review of Global Affairs.
His advice to the Morsi administration is that Egypt should work with Ethiopia and sudan, and strike deals on how to stop the damming of the Nile. He also hinted that the process might involve “multilateral trade agreements” and that’s where China could be called upon to negotiate with the other countries on behalf of Egypt. While this may be a long shot, given the high stakes involved, it is not beyond Egypt to do so.
Fuel resources
There is also the question of fuel resources. Both Wye and Wanyonyi told ChinAfrica, in separate interviews, that China’s relationship with Egypt will assure China of oil and gas resources from the Middle East, needed to fuel its economic growth.
“The Mediterranean is now a hotbed of natural gas: turkey, Cyprus, Israel and Lebanon have all found massive quantities of natural gas in their waters. Only Egypt has not developed its gas potential in that sea,”said Wanyonyi, adding that China is keen to be involved in this opportunity.
On the same issue, Wye said China welcomed Morsi as the leader of one of the key Arab nations based on its growing interest in the Middle East.
“With China increasingly becoming involved and interested in developments in the Middle East, both because of its growing dependence on Middle Eastern oil, and because of its cautious attitude to political change in the Middle East, China will probably have wanted to reassure itself that president Morsi’s government would continue to provide stability,” said Wye.
But that said, the Egypt-China partnership is also part of a wider foreign policy target that according to Egyptian scholar, Nabil Fahmy, who served as envoy to Japan and the United states under Mubarak, will involve getting Brazil, Russia, India, China and south Africa, in the loop.
“Egypt must also seek to court those extra-regional emerging powers - especially the BRICs grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and south Africa - whose growing economic and strategic clout have already lent considerable weight to their international policies,” Nabil wrote in an essay published in september. “These relationships will prove a great boon if bolstered by successful domestic reform and a position of regional leadership,” he wrote.
On this foreign policy angle, the thinking in Africa is that a stable Egypt will help China in its relationships with other member countries under the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation.
Wye believes that China sees Egypt as“completely crucial” to its continental policy with Africa. Egypt, for its part, has to try and recover its traditional power as a leader in thought, and as a powerbroker in the Middle East.
Morsi left China with a $200 million investment loan, a one-off $70.31 million grant aimed at infrastructure development and environmental projects and a gift of 300 police cars to help bolster Egypt’s security. This and other cooperative agreements signed could be crucial to solidify his first term in office, by assisting the mending of Egypt’s broken infrastructure and stalled development.