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利用塔里木盆地南缘和田绿洲4眼观测井的2001年-2004年逐月实测平均地下水位埋深资料,基于帕森斯季节性指数理论,分别建立了季节性地下水位埋深动态变化预测模型,并进行了趋势预测检验.结果表明:各观测井地下水位帕森斯季节性指数模型拟合差≤0.10m的月数占总检验月数的比例为66.7%,拟合差≤0.20m且>0.10m的月数占总检验月数的比例为29.2%,拟合差>0.25的月数占总检验月数的比例为4%;各观测井预测误差≤0.10m的月数占总预报月数的比例为41.7%,预测误差≤0.20m且>0.10m的月数占总预报月数的比例为37.5%,预测误差>0.20m的平均为12%,说明帕森斯季节性指数模型可以对短期和田绿洲地下水位动态趋势进行预测。
Based on Pavesei seasonal index theory, the dynamic forecasting model of seasonal groundwater table buried depth was established based on monthly measured groundwater depth data from 4 observation wells in Hotan Oasis, southern margin of Tarim Basin. And the trend forecast test was carried out.The results showed that the Parsons’ seasonal index model of groundwater table in each observation well had the ratio of months with difference≤0.10m accounting for 66.7% of the total inspection months, the fitting difference was less than or equal to 0.20m and> The proportion of 0.10m months to the total number of inspection months is 29.2%, the number of months with the difference of> 0.25 is 4% of the total number of inspection months; The proportion of the number of 41.7%, forecast error ≤ 0.20m and> 0.10m the number of months the total forecast number of 37.5% forecast error> 0.20m average of 12%, indicating that Parsons’ seasonal index model can Forecast the dynamic trend of groundwater level in the short-term Hetian Oasis.