论文部分内容阅读
目的分析不同年龄组人群在流感流行过程中的作用。方法采用7d移动平均数法寻找流感样病例流行波,分析流行波与流感病毒检出率的关系,利用不同年龄组流行波中位数分析不同年龄组人群在流感样病例流行中的特征。结果周流感样病例数与流感病毒阳性检出率相关系数为0.46(95%CI=0.29~0.60),4次流行波中有3次流感与流感疫情高度相关;低年龄组人群在季节性流感疫情中率先发病。结论流感样病例疫情与流感阳性检出率联系密切;在季节性流感流行过程中小年龄组人群是流感疫情控制的重点人群,新型流感出现时当以率先流行的人群为重点人群。
Objective To analyze the role of different age groups in the epidemic of influenza. Methods The 7d moving average method was used to find the epidemic wave of influenza-like cases. The relationship between the epidemic wave and the detection rate of influenza virus was analyzed. The characteristics of influenza-like cases in different age groups were analyzed using the median of epidemic waves in different age groups. Results The correlation coefficient between the number of flu-like cases and the positive rate of flu was 0.46 (95% CI = 0.29-0.60). There were three flu outbreaks in the four epidemic waves, The first attack in the epidemic. Conclusions The outbreaks of influenza-like illness are closely related to the positive detection rate of influenza. In the process of seasonal influenza epidemic, the small-age group is the key population of influenza epidemic control. When the new-type influenza occurs, it should be the first to be popularized.