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如果澳大利亚难以实现经济的持续明显改善并继续宽松的货币政策,投资者将缺乏持续做多澳元的激励。2014年一季度,外汇市场上涨幅居前的货币对中,商品货币占据半壁江山,其中纽元/美元一季度涨幅超过5%,澳元/美元涨幅亦接近3.5%(见附图)。那么,这到底是趋势的修正还是趋势的反转呢?以下是笔者对纽元、澳元和加元三种典型商品货币的中期前景分析。
Investors will lack the incentive to keep up the Aussie dollar if it is difficult for Australia to achieve significant and sustained economic improvement and to continue its accommodative monetary policy. In the first quarter of 2014, the foreign exchange market rose the most in terms of currency pairs. Commodity currencies accounted for half of the total. New Zealand dollar / dollar rose more than 5% in the first quarter and the Australian dollar / dollar rose by nearly 3.5% (see the accompanying figure). So, in the end this trend correction or trend reversal it? The following is the author of the New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar three typical commodity currencies medium-term outlook analysis.