论文部分内容阅读
二季度以来,中国经济减速引发了强烈担忧,国内外关于中国经济可能陷入“滞涨”或者“硬着陆”危险的言论甚嚣尘上。然而,从今年上半年中国GDP增长9.6%(浙江同比增长9.9%)的统计数据来看,“滞胀”之说并不成立,“硬着陆”之说也不攻自破。部分主要经济指标增速下滑,其实是国家主动调控的结果。尽管经济增速在放缓(增速已连续2个季度下滑),但降速缓慢和平顺,“经济增长的内生动力依然强劲”。我们无需过度担忧政策“超调”而导致的经济风险,实在没有必要为“速度”和耀眼的“数字”焦虑。
Since the second quarter, China’s economic slowdown has caused strong concerns. The remarks about the danger that the Chinese economy may fall into “stagflation” or “hard landing” are rampant. However, from the statistical data of 9.6% of China’s GDP growth in the first half of this year (a year-on-year increase of 9.9% in Zhejiang Province), “stagflation” is not true and “hard landing” is not self-defeating. Part of the main economic indicators of declining growth rate, in fact, is the result of state regulation and control. Although economic growth is slowing (growth has been declining for two consecutive quarters), it has been slow and smooth, and “the endogenous momentum of economic growth remains strong.” We do not need to worry too much about the economic risks of policy overshoot, and there’s really no need for anxiety for speed and dazzling numbers.