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自2005年7月中国汇率形成机制改革以来,热钱流入中国的话题就开始趋热。粮食安全事关国家安全,到底热钱是否应该进入这个事关中国十几亿人口吃饭问题的产业,会产生何种影响,这个问题一直是一个热议的话题。鉴于最近中国农产品价格发生了强烈波动的事实和农产品市场的重要性,本文通过热钱规模和农产品价格指数的月度数据进行实证分析,得出热钱与农产品价格存在均衡关系,是农产品价格变化的Granger原因。
Since the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism in China in July 2005, the topic of hot money inflow into China has started to heat up. In the end, whether the hot money should enter this industry that affects the billions of Chinese population will have an impact. This issue has always been a hot topic. In view of the fact that the price of agricultural products in China has fluctuated strongly and the importance of the market for agricultural products, this paper conducts an empirical analysis based on the monthly data of the scale of hot money and the price index of agricultural products, and concludes that there is a balanced relationship between the price of hot money and the prices of agricultural products, which is the Granger cause of the price changes of agricultural products .