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目的通过收集广州市2012—2016年流感监测数据,分析A型季节性流感在广州市的流行特征,为预测下一波A型季节性流感流行的流行株提供数据基础。方法采用多重实时荧光PCR(Real-time PCR)方法对流感监测医院采集的流感样病例(ILI)咽拭子进行流感病毒核酸检测,用EXCEL 2010建立数据库与绘图分析,用SPSS16.0软件对数据进行统计分析。结果 2012—2016年广州市共采集监测标本16 686份,新甲型H1N1流感病毒核酸阳性率为3.5%,H3N2流感病毒核酸阳性率为3.7%;2012与2015年为H3N2流感流行,2013与2016年为新甲型H1N1流感流行,2014年为两种流感病毒交替流行;新甲型H1N1流感病毒核酸阳性率最高的为25~59岁组人群,为4.0%,最低的为5~14岁组人群,为2.7%,H3N2流感病毒核酸阳性率最高的为15~24岁组人群,为4.9%,最低的为0~4岁组人群,为1.8%。结论广州A型季节性流感的流行高峰期发生在冬春和夏季;流行高峰持续2~3个月;预测2017年可能出现H3N2流感流行,流行时间出现在夏季,建议2017年加强H3N2流感的防控工作,以15~24岁组人群为主要的防控对象。
Objective To collect the epidemiological data of influenza A in Guangzhou from 2012 to 2016 and to provide the data basis for the prediction of the epidemic of the next type A seasonal influenza. Methods Real-time PCR was used to detect influenza virus nucleic acid in the throat swab of influenza-like illness (ILI) collected in the hospital of influenza surveillance. The database and mapping analysis were established with EXCEL 2010, and the data were analyzed by SPSS16.0 software conduct statistical analysis. Results A total of 16 686 surveillance samples were collected from Guangzhou in 2012-2016. The positive rate of the new influenza A (H1N1) virus was 3.5% and that of the H3N2 influenza virus was 3.7%. In 2012 and 2015, the prevalence of H3N2 influenza was 2013 and 2016 Year for the new influenza A H1N1 influenza epidemic, alternating between the two influenza viruses in 2014; the highest positive rate of the new influenza A (H1N1) virus nucleic acid for the 25 to 59 age group, 4.0%, the lowest for the 5 to 14 age group The prevalence of H3N2 influenza virus nucleic acid was 2.7% in the population, 4.9% in the 15-24 age group and lowest in the 0-4 age group, 1.8%. Conclusion The prevalence of seasonal influenza A (A) in Guangzhou peaked in winter, spring and summer. The epidemic peak lasted for 2 to 3 months. It is predicted that the prevalence of H3N2 influenza may occur in 2017. The prevalence of H3N2 influenza in summer appears to be enhanced in 2017 Control work to 15-24-year-old group of people as the main prevention and control targets.