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一、电力市场分析我国电力供应在经历了前几年的过剩之后,从去年开始,电力供需形势发生了转变,缺电形势日益严峻。包括广东、贵州、云南、上海、浙江、江苏、河南、山东、宁夏、甘肃、青海、四川、重庆在内的15个省市自治区,出现程度不同的电力短缺现象。曾经一度消失的“拉闸限电”在许多地区又开始频频出现。尽管目前这种缺电是局部性的,缺电现象并没有在全国普遍发生。但是,缺电主要发生在占国民经济发展总值权重比较大的地区,特别是东南沿海经济发达地区,比如广东、上海、浙江、江苏等。缺电的地区可能从数目上来说是少数,但是它们的用电量很大,对国民经济的影响也很大。造成电力短缺的局面,原因是综合的。首先,我国的经济发展迅速,用电增幅过快,是造成缺电的直接原因。2002年我国工业经济的增幅达到12.6%,是1997年以来增速最快的一年。今年预计工业增幅仍将保持两位数。
First, the electricity market analysis China’s power supply after experiencing a few years ago, since last year, the situation of power supply and demand has changed, power shortage situation is increasingly grim. In 15 provinces and autonomous regions including Guangdong, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, Ningxia, Gansu, Qinghai, Sichuan and Chongqing, different levels of power shortages have emerged. Once the disappearance of “power cut ” in many areas began to appear frequently. Although this current power shortage is localized, the phenomenon of power shortage has not occurred universally in China. However, the shortage of power mainly occurs in areas that account for a relatively large proportion of the GDP of the total national economic development, especially in economically developed areas along the southeastern coast of China, such as Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu. The areas lacking electricity may be a minority in number, but their electricity consumption is huge and their impact on the national economy is also great. The reason for the shortage of electricity is that it is comprehensive. First of all, the rapid economic growth in our country and the excessive increase in electricity consumption are the direct causes of power shortage. In 2002, the growth rate of China’s industrial economy reached 12.6%, the fastest growth since 1997. This year, industrial growth is expected to remain double-digit.