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以石羊河中游为研究区域,分析了1956-2009年的径流损耗特征,通过相对损耗率和Fisher最优分割法等确定了人类活动对径流损耗的显著影响拐点为1975年,明确了人类活动影响下的径流突变点,修正了当前研究的不足。根据人类活动对径流影响的方式及强度,将近50多年的径流损耗划分为4个阶段,定量与定性相结合分析了1956-2009年不同代际的自然因素和人文因素对径流损耗的影响量和贡献率。结果表明:人类活动对石羊河中游径流损耗的影响于20世纪70年代中期以后显著增加;2000年之前人文因素贡献率不断增加,自然因素贡献率相应减少,且自然因素影响量与出山径流显著相关。20世纪90年代以来,人类活动与自然过程导致的径流损耗贡献率持平,1995-1999年人类活动影响量达到6.33亿m3/a,上游来水量的62.31%被人类直接消耗,此时径流损耗的人文因素贡献率达最大值71.52%;之后开始逐渐降低,表明近年来石羊河中游人水系统矛盾有趋于缓和的迹象。
Taking the middle reaches of Shiyang River as the research area, the characteristics of runoff loss from 1956 to 2009 were analyzed. The significant impact of human activities on runoff loss was determined by relative loss rate and Fisher’s optimal segmentation method. The inflection point was 1975, which defined the human activities Under the influence of the runoff mutation point, amended the current research deficiencies. According to the ways and intensities of human activities on runoff, the runoff losses of nearly 50 years are divided into four stages. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the impact of natural and human factors on runoff losses from 1956 to 2009 Contribution rate. The results showed that the influence of human activities on the runoff loss in the middle reaches of Shiyang River increased significantly after the mid-1970s. Before 2000, the contribution rate of human factors increased continuously, the contribution rate of natural factors decreased correspondingly, and the influence of natural factors and outflow from runoff were significant Related. The contribution rate of runoff loss caused by human activities and natural processes has been flat since the 1990s. From 1995 to 1999, the impact of human activities reached 633 million m3 / a, and 62.31% of the upstream water flow was directly consumed by human beings. At this time, runoff loss The contribution rate of human factors reaches 71.52%, and then gradually decreases. It shows that the contradiction of water system in the middle reaches of Shiyang River tends to be alleviated in recent years.