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本文解决了非线性定价规则导致的电量与电价间的内生性、电力需求的引致性、消费者的复杂异质性和多种定价方式的组合性等4个理论难题,利用基于广义矩估计的完备结构计量模型和微观居民电力需求数据,研究了递增阶梯定价与峰谷定价组合下中国居民的微观电力需求,评估了阶梯和分时定价组合的政策效果。本文发现,阶梯和峰谷定价的组合难以引导用户合理调整用电行为,既无助于促进公平,也难以消除价格补贴,而且阶梯与峰谷电价之间存在政策效果冲突。居民电价政策的目标与手段错配,表明居民电价改革必须在整体电力体制改革的框架下协调推进。
This paper solves four theoretical problems caused by the non-linear pricing rules, such as the endogeneity of electricity and electricity price, the inducement of electricity demand, the complex heterogeneity of consumers and the combination of multiple pricing methods. Based on GMM Complete structural econometric model and microcosmic residential electricity demand data. The micro-electricity demand of Chinese residents under the combination of incremental step-pricing and peak-to-trough pricing is studied, and the policy effect of the step-and-time pricing combination is evaluated. This paper finds that the combination of price ladder and valley pricing can not guide users to adjust their electricity consumption rationally, which can not help to promote fairness and eliminate price subsidies. Moreover, there are conflicting policy effects between the price ladder and peak-valley pricing. The mismatch between the goals and measures of the household electricity price policy shows that the residential electricity tariff reform must be coordinated and promoted under the framework of overall power system reform.