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在分析铁路这一特殊承灾体成灾机理和致灾因子的基础上 ,应用灰色理论和数理统计 ,对铁路环境水害危险度计算模型进行了探讨和构建。分析中 ,以新亚欧大陆桥新疆段 (以下简称为‘陆桥新疆段’) 39年 (195 9～ 1997年 )的水害资料为统计分析数据 ,以水害频次、水害密度和断道时间为铁路环境水害危险度计算和危险性评估指标 ,根据灰色关联分析原理 ,确定出危险性评估中水害密度、断道时间和水害频次的权重依次为 5 ,3,2。然后 ,基于水害密度、水害频次和断道时间 3个指标的内在联系 ,以及权重的大小 ,以沿线 3级车站之间的区段为对比分析单元 ,构建出铁路环境水害危险度计算模型为 :Pfd=dPfHec/ (dPf+Hec)。最后 ,应用这一模型对陆桥新疆段水害进行了计算和对比分析 ,发现所得结果与水害实际分布情况符合得较好。
Based on the analysis of the disaster mechanism and hazard index of this special disaster-bearing body, the gray theory and mathematical statistics are used to discuss and construct the calculation model of the hazard risk of the railway environment water hazard. In the analysis, the data of water hazard of the New Eurasian Continental Bridge in Xinjiang (hereinafter referred to as “bridge section of Xinjiang”) for 39 years (from1995 to 1997) are used as statistical analysis data. The frequencies of water hazards, waterlogging densities, According to the principle of gray relational analysis, the weight of water hazard density, break time and frequency of water damage in the risk assessment is determined as 5, 3 and 2 respectively. Then, based on the internal relations among the three indexes of waterlogging density, frequency of water damage and break time, and the weight, taking the section between the three stations along the line as the comparative analysis unit, the calculation model of the risk of railway water hazard is constructed: Pfd = dPfHec / (dPf + Hec). Finally, this model is applied to the calculation and comparison of water damage in the land bridge in Xinjiang. The results are in good agreement with the actual distribution of water damage.