在三化螟测报工作中,发生量和为害程度的长期预测是生产上急需解决的题目之一。1979年以来,在研究本地区螟害规律的基础上,对多年测报工作中积累的大量数据经整理分析,总结出利用经验值对三化螟发生量及螟害率进行长期预测的计算方法。此法在1980～1982年三年试用过程中,经大田发生实况验证,预测准确性较好,现已作为本站目前对三化螟发生量进行长期预测的办法。 In the rice stem borer measurement work, the amount of occurrence and extent of damage long-term prediction is one of the urgent problems to be solved in production. Since 1979, on the basis of studying the law of borer damage in this area, a large amount of data accumulated in many years’ survey work has been sorted and analyzed, and the calculation method of long-term prediction of the occurrence and the rate of stem borer has been summed up empirically. This method in the 1980 ~ 1982 three-year trial process, the live field verification, prediction accuracy is better, now as the site of the occurrence of the yellow rice borer long-term forecast approach.