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以2007年武汉海事局辖区船舶碰撞资料为基础,利用故障树分析方法构建该水域船舶碰撞故障树,进行定性、定量分析,得到包括航行疏于戒备、车舵控制失误、疏于了望等14个主要危险因素及各因素的相关事故数。在故障树分析的基础上,构建布尔代数和最小割集,计算各危险因素的概率重要度,以衡量各危险因素发生概率的变化给碰撞事故发生概率带来的影响;计算临界重要度,从敏感度和概率双重角度衡量每个危险因素的重要度。通过分析发现应急操作不当、违反其他规定、航行疏于戒备、违反分道通航、疲劳驾驶等人为因素是引起该水域船舶碰撞的重要原因。建议船公司重视船员应急培训,提高船员应急处置能力,海事管理机构加大相关法规宣传力度和监管力度。
Based on the ship collision data of Wuhan Maritime Bureau area in 2007, the fault tree analysis method was used to construct the fault tree of the ship collision in this area. The fault tree was analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively, including the negligence of navigating, the mistake of steering control, etc. A number of major risk factors and related factors of the number of accidents. Based on the fault tree analysis, the Boolean algebra and minimum cut set are constructed, and the probability importance of each risk factor is calculated to measure the impact of the change of each risk factor on the probability of collision. The critical importance is calculated from The duality of sensitivity and probability measures the importance of each risk factor. Through analysis, it is found that the improper emergency operation, violation of other regulations, negligence of navigation, violation of traffic separation, fatigue driving and other human factors are the important causes of the collision of ships in this area. It is suggested that shipping companies should attach importance to emergency training of seafarers and enhance the crew’s ability to deal with emergencies. Maritime administrations should step up publicity and supervision of relevant laws and regulations.