论文部分内容阅读
本文基于中国进出口信用保险公司22家省级分公司的业务数据,以出口信用保险保费而非保额为核心解释变量,构建了分析出口信用保险出口促进作用的省际面板数据模型。利用工具变量法,以2SLS和GMM法估计有效地解决了出口额和保费间的内生性问题。实证结果表明,出口信用保险对中国出口有显著的促进作用,金融危机期间表现得尤其明显,具有较强的“逆周期性”。出口信用保险的出口促进作用存在显著的地区差异,对中部地区出口的边际促进作用最大,西部次之,东部最小。出口信用保险的出口促进作用还具有显著的门槛效应,当发展到特定水平,越过某个门槛后,对出口的促进作用会显著增强,甚至发生质的飞跃。对赔付率低且稳定的中西部省份,保险人应实施积极的承保策略,以更有效地促进出口。通过出口信用保险政策支持出口必须将支持力度提高至一定的水平,否则不会产生预期的效果。
Based on the business data of 22 provincial branches of China Import and Export Credit Insurance Corporation, this paper constructs an inter-provincial panel data model that analyzes the role of export credit insurance premiums rather than the insured amount as the core explanatory variables to analyze the role of export credit insurance export promotion. Using the instrumental variable approach, the 2SLS and GMM estimates effectively address the endogeneity between exports and premiums. The empirical results show that the export credit insurance has a significant promotion effect on China’s exports, especially during the financial crisis, with strong “reverse cycle”. There is a significant regional difference in the export promotion role of export credit insurance, with the greatest impact on the marginal promotion of exports in the central region, followed by the west and the smallest in the eastern part. The export promotion role of export credit insurance also has a significant threshold effect. When it reaches a certain level and crosses a certain threshold, the promotion effect on exports will be significantly enhanced and even a qualitative leap will take place. Insurers should implement an active underwriting strategy for low-loss and stable Central and Western provinces in order to promote exports more effectively. Export support through export credit insurance policies must support the export to a certain level, otherwise it will not produce the desired result.