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针对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害子系统的复杂非线性动力学特性,以南方某省1958—2007年的煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故发生数构建时间序列,应用霍斯特时间序列数据的标度行为,提出瓦斯爆炸时间序列的重标极差分析(R/S分析)方法。结果表明:瓦斯爆炸时间序列的霍斯特指数为0.550 2,分形维数为1.449 8,其分式布朗运动轨迹表现出一定的持久性和非高斯性。为诊断瓦斯爆炸事故时间序列变异年份,对时间序列进行分段R/S分析,获得变异年份为1974年,以1974年为分界点构成2个时间序列,霍斯特指数分别为0.589 1和0.697 5,分形维数为1.410 9和1.302 5,与煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故时间序列的持久性趋势一致。煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故时间序列看似无序却蕴藏规律,反映了系统的动力学变化特征,R/S分析方法可以描述煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故时间序列的动力学特征。
Aiming at the complex nonlinear dynamic characteristics of coal mine gas explosion disaster subsystems, the time series of coal mine gas explosion accidents in a southern province from 1958 to 2007 was constructed. Based on the scale behavior of Horst time series data, the gas explosion time Sequential repackage analysis (R / S analysis) method. The results show that the Horst index of gas explosion time series is 0.550 2 and the fractal dimension is 1.449 8. The fractional Brownian motion trajectory shows some persistence and non-Gaussianity. In order to diagnose the year of time series variation of gas explosion accidents, the time series was segmented by R / S analysis, the year of variation was 1974 and the time series of 1974 was two time series. The Horst indices were 0.589 1 and 0.697 respectively 5, the fractal dimension is 1.410 9 and 1.302 5, which is consistent with the persistence trend of time sequence of gas explosion in coal mine. The time series of coal mine gas explosion accidents appear to be disorderly and hidden law, reflecting the dynamic characteristics of the system. The R / S analysis method can describe the dynamic characteristics of time series of gas explosion accident in coal mine.