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为深入分析供给侧改革背景下粮食最低收购价对我国农产品种植面积的影响,以小麦为例,通过搜集筛选影响小麦播种面积的主要因素,建立多元回归方程,并借助于ARMA时间序列模型预测未来两年间我国小麦播种面积受粮食最低收购价刺激的反应程度。回归预测分析表明,当前小麦播种面积与粮食最低收购价变动呈正相关,但受其刺激的反应程度并不十分明显。与之相比,其受科技进步水平、收入及成本的影响相对较大。最后,从供给侧改革出发,提出了完善我国粮食最低收购价的对策和建议。
In order to further analyze the impact of the minimum purchase price of grain on the acreage of agricultural products under supply-side reform in China, taking wheat as an example, we establish a multiple regression equation by collecting and screening the main factors affecting the sown area of wheat and predict the future by means of ARMA time series model In two years, the sown area of wheat in our country was affected by the response to the minimum purchase price of grain. Regression analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the current sown area of wheat and the change of the minimum purchase price of grain, but the degree of response stimulated by it is not very obvious. In contrast, it is relatively affected by the level of scientific and technological progress, income and costs. Finally, from the perspective of supply-side reform, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to improve the minimum purchase price of grain in China.