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本文首先运用比较分析手段,将近年价格形势与历史时期进行对比,发现“十一五”时期价格波动新特征。然后运用近十年的数据进行实证分析,运用因子分析法和向量自回归(VAR)模型的方差分解法研究各因素对价格波动的影响程度。通过模型研究和现实因素分析判断:目前我国价格波动的源动力已从需求拉动型逐渐演变为成本、资金共同推动型,且受国际市场传导影响加深。初步判断,“十二五”时期我国价格上升压力进一步加大,抗通胀形势不容乐观。因此建议:一是建立完善农产品供需信息平台和产供销体系;二是战略性地谋划基础资源产业,稳步推进资源产品价格改革;三是疏导全社会过于敏感的通胀预期;四是加大保障民生持续改善的制度和运作机制体系建设力度。
This article first uses comparative analysis to compare the price situation in recent years with the historical period and finds new features of price fluctuations during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period. Then use the data of nearly ten years to conduct empirical analysis, and use factor analysis method and variance decomposition method of vector autoregression (VAR) model to study the influence degree of each factor on price fluctuation. Judging from model research and practical factors, the source of current price fluctuations in China has gradually evolved from a demand-driven model to a cost- and capital-driven model, and has been further influenced by the international market. According to preliminary judgments, the pressure of rising prices in China during the 12th Five-Year Plan period has further increased, and the anti-inflation situation is not optimistic. Therefore, it is recommended that: First, establish an information platform for the supply and demand of agricultural products and a production, supply and sales system; Second, strategically plan the basic resources industry, steadily push forward the reform of resource product prices; Third, channel the overly sensitive inflation expectations of the whole society; Fourth, increase the protection of people’s livelihood The continuous improvement of the system and the construction of the operating mechanism system.