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在构建林业治沙内生增长模型的基础上,本文采用1993-2011年和1991-2011年的数据分别对两类国家林业治沙重点工程公共投资绩效进行实证研究。结果表明,在京津工程中,公共投资的产出效应显著,但却存在并不显著的挤出效应。而在三北工程中,平均公共投资低很多、产出效应近似显著,其挤入效应非常显著,私人资本产出效应也非常显著。因此,为了提高绩效,要增加三北工程投资,保护私人造林产权,减少地方政府干预,完善集体林权制度改革等,并提高生态补偿标准、大力发展沙草产业和不断改进林业治沙技术。
Based on the model of endogenous growth of forestry and sand control, this paper uses the data of 1993-2011 and 1991-2011 to make an empirical study on the performance of public investment in two major national forestry and desertification control projects. The results show that in the Beijing-Tianjin project, the output effect of public investment is significant, but there is not a significant crowding-out effect. However, in the Three North Project, the average public investment is much lower, the output effect is similar, and the crowding-in effect is very significant. The output effect of private capital is also very significant. Therefore, in order to improve performance, it is necessary to increase investment in the Three North Projects, protect private ownership of afforestation, reduce local government intervention, improve the reform of the collective forest tenure system, raise ecological compensation standards, vigorously develop savannah industry and continuously improve forestry technology.