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Zuo Xiaolei: Chief president consultant of China Galaxy Securities
No difficulty in realizing 7.5% of GDP growth
There is no difficulty to realize 7.5% of GDP growth. The economy stays in a stable tendency, and Q4 will witness the effect of policy adjustments.
Distinct from the V-shaped reversal in 2008, the economy is increasing slowly and stably because of factors including related policies, measures and structural adjustment, which is also in accordance with our previous analysis. The indemnificatory housing project can help to stabilize the investment, and export rebates are beneficial to the export. The huge consumption capability in the national holiday also suggest immense potential domestic demands.
I don’t think China’s economy is still in a continuing downtrend or slowing down sharply. Due to the fading demographic dividend, changing comparative advantage and worsening crisis in foreign markets, the two-digit growth rate cannot be seen any more. But it is reasonable from the point view of economic laws.
The GDP will maintain a growth rate between 7.5% and 8% in the future. It is a great chance for structural transformation, which deserves more efforts, provided that it doesn’t influence the employment in a large scale.
Peng Wensheng: Chief economist of CICC
Holding on to the easing monetary policy
The monetary data in September is much better than expected. However, the easing monetary policy will not be changed due to the uncertain passive factors of monetary conditions.
In the domestic market, the monetary conditions are improved greater than expected. The monetary data in September is much better than expected, reflecting factors such as more fiscal deposits, more funds outstanding for foreign exchanges, backflow of financial products at the end of last quarter and emerging effects of easing monetary policy since Q2. In general, the extent of monetary conditions improvement is larger than expected.
Considering the weak impetus of entity economy and high financing costs, the easing monetary policy will not be changed in the near future. The intensified actions of reverse repurchase by the central bank also prove the above judgment. On account of such better condition, there is less possibility for the central bank to cut benchmark deposit and loan interest rates again in the near future.
Qu Hongbin: Chief economist of HSBC
The central bank will stick to quantitative policies
It is expected to have a moderate inflationary pressure in the future. Though the GDP growth rate may rebound a little in the future quarters, it is still under the potential level, which means the lower pressure of demand-pull inflation. What’s more, the nine-year consecutive harvest guarantee the abundant food supply; high inventories of pigs suggest space for price rising; the price of commodities will not rise sharply due to the sluggish global economy and moderate GDP growth in China. All of the above show that the input of inflationary pressure to domestic market is under control.
Qu Hongbin indicates that the moderate inflation in the future provides possibilities for continuing easing monetary policies and economic growth. It is expected that the maximum can be lowered is 25 basis point, and the central bank will stick to the quantitative policies, including cutting the benchmark deposit and injecting liquidity through open-market operations.
Sun Jianbo: Chief strategist of Galaxy Securities
The economy is stabilizing and the accumulative effect of structural adjustment policies is emerging
The economy in China is stabilizing, reflected by the statistics of September released recently. The consumption and industrial production is rebounding faster than the investment, which means the economic structure has been adjusted. Sun says that though the accumulative effect of structural adjustment policies is emerging, it is still not strong. In his view, the positive effect of such policies will continue in the next two quarters.
Viewing from a long-term perspective, the economy in China will develop in the direction of transformation and differentiation. He suggests that people should concentrate on the quality upgrading of exports and investments in real estate and fixed assets. In addition, the industrial policy should match that of financial sector, so as to stimulate the economic vitality.
Ma Guangyuan: Well-known economic commentator
The declining of the economy is slowing down, suggesting a signal of stabilizing
The statistics of the first three quarters show that the economy is still downward, but the speed is slowing. Compared to Q1, it decreased 0.5% in Q2, and 0.2% in Q3 compared to Q2, which suggests the economy is stabilizing. Though 7.4% is far from satisfaction, it reflects an upward trend.
When seeing a doctor, it is not enough to just refer to the temperature. From a short-term perspective, the data is improving. But other issues including structural upgrading are more important and worthy noticing. GDP is important, but is not the only one that matters. We should treat the macro-economy comprehensively, not just judge by one single figure. GDP will surely rise in Q3 because of some investment projects. Ma Guangyuan points out that it is of greater importance to solve structural problems and excess capacity of some industries.
Song Guoqing: Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, and professor in National School of Development of Peking University
GDP below 8% may promote the adjustment of income distribution system
Statistics show that incomes in China are not keeping pace with the rising of GDP. The major factor is distribution policies of the national income, which may be promoted passively when the GDP is below 8%.
In the past few years, the profit brought by GDP rising didn’t serve as national income, but flowed into the state-owned enterprise. However, the surging profit in these enterprises were not redistributed, which left little benefits in general and comparative industries. Such conflict was highlighted under the pressure of high growth and inflation. Because of the decreasing in disposable income, as well as the rising of financial assets, consumers are more sensitive to the pressure of inflation and reacted fiercely to the issues like high house prices and enlarging income gap.
People are looking forward to distribution policies of the national income, as well as approaches to cut profits of stateowned enterprises, manipulate the monopolized industry, control the income of civil servants, and reform the tax policy, etc.
No difficulty in realizing 7.5% of GDP growth
There is no difficulty to realize 7.5% of GDP growth. The economy stays in a stable tendency, and Q4 will witness the effect of policy adjustments.
Distinct from the V-shaped reversal in 2008, the economy is increasing slowly and stably because of factors including related policies, measures and structural adjustment, which is also in accordance with our previous analysis. The indemnificatory housing project can help to stabilize the investment, and export rebates are beneficial to the export. The huge consumption capability in the national holiday also suggest immense potential domestic demands.
I don’t think China’s economy is still in a continuing downtrend or slowing down sharply. Due to the fading demographic dividend, changing comparative advantage and worsening crisis in foreign markets, the two-digit growth rate cannot be seen any more. But it is reasonable from the point view of economic laws.
The GDP will maintain a growth rate between 7.5% and 8% in the future. It is a great chance for structural transformation, which deserves more efforts, provided that it doesn’t influence the employment in a large scale.
Peng Wensheng: Chief economist of CICC
Holding on to the easing monetary policy
The monetary data in September is much better than expected. However, the easing monetary policy will not be changed due to the uncertain passive factors of monetary conditions.
In the domestic market, the monetary conditions are improved greater than expected. The monetary data in September is much better than expected, reflecting factors such as more fiscal deposits, more funds outstanding for foreign exchanges, backflow of financial products at the end of last quarter and emerging effects of easing monetary policy since Q2. In general, the extent of monetary conditions improvement is larger than expected.
Considering the weak impetus of entity economy and high financing costs, the easing monetary policy will not be changed in the near future. The intensified actions of reverse repurchase by the central bank also prove the above judgment. On account of such better condition, there is less possibility for the central bank to cut benchmark deposit and loan interest rates again in the near future.
Qu Hongbin: Chief economist of HSBC
The central bank will stick to quantitative policies
It is expected to have a moderate inflationary pressure in the future. Though the GDP growth rate may rebound a little in the future quarters, it is still under the potential level, which means the lower pressure of demand-pull inflation. What’s more, the nine-year consecutive harvest guarantee the abundant food supply; high inventories of pigs suggest space for price rising; the price of commodities will not rise sharply due to the sluggish global economy and moderate GDP growth in China. All of the above show that the input of inflationary pressure to domestic market is under control.
Qu Hongbin indicates that the moderate inflation in the future provides possibilities for continuing easing monetary policies and economic growth. It is expected that the maximum can be lowered is 25 basis point, and the central bank will stick to the quantitative policies, including cutting the benchmark deposit and injecting liquidity through open-market operations.
Sun Jianbo: Chief strategist of Galaxy Securities
The economy is stabilizing and the accumulative effect of structural adjustment policies is emerging
The economy in China is stabilizing, reflected by the statistics of September released recently. The consumption and industrial production is rebounding faster than the investment, which means the economic structure has been adjusted. Sun says that though the accumulative effect of structural adjustment policies is emerging, it is still not strong. In his view, the positive effect of such policies will continue in the next two quarters.
Viewing from a long-term perspective, the economy in China will develop in the direction of transformation and differentiation. He suggests that people should concentrate on the quality upgrading of exports and investments in real estate and fixed assets. In addition, the industrial policy should match that of financial sector, so as to stimulate the economic vitality.
Ma Guangyuan: Well-known economic commentator
The declining of the economy is slowing down, suggesting a signal of stabilizing
The statistics of the first three quarters show that the economy is still downward, but the speed is slowing. Compared to Q1, it decreased 0.5% in Q2, and 0.2% in Q3 compared to Q2, which suggests the economy is stabilizing. Though 7.4% is far from satisfaction, it reflects an upward trend.
When seeing a doctor, it is not enough to just refer to the temperature. From a short-term perspective, the data is improving. But other issues including structural upgrading are more important and worthy noticing. GDP is important, but is not the only one that matters. We should treat the macro-economy comprehensively, not just judge by one single figure. GDP will surely rise in Q3 because of some investment projects. Ma Guangyuan points out that it is of greater importance to solve structural problems and excess capacity of some industries.
Song Guoqing: Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, and professor in National School of Development of Peking University
GDP below 8% may promote the adjustment of income distribution system
Statistics show that incomes in China are not keeping pace with the rising of GDP. The major factor is distribution policies of the national income, which may be promoted passively when the GDP is below 8%.
In the past few years, the profit brought by GDP rising didn’t serve as national income, but flowed into the state-owned enterprise. However, the surging profit in these enterprises were not redistributed, which left little benefits in general and comparative industries. Such conflict was highlighted under the pressure of high growth and inflation. Because of the decreasing in disposable income, as well as the rising of financial assets, consumers are more sensitive to the pressure of inflation and reacted fiercely to the issues like high house prices and enlarging income gap.
People are looking forward to distribution policies of the national income, as well as approaches to cut profits of stateowned enterprises, manipulate the monopolized industry, control the income of civil servants, and reform the tax policy, etc.