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对于经济增长与贫困的关系,大量实证研究表明如果模型仅使用经济增长和收入不平等来解释贫困则结论与现实的契合性缺乏稳定。传统的空间同质性和线性的假设难以适应经济增长、收入不平等、政府干预和贫困之间的复杂关系。为此,本文基于1993—2011年的面板数据,分别采用空间面板回归模型和门槛面板回归模型,考察经济增长、收入不平等、政府干预与农村贫困的关系。结果表明,中国贫困人口的分布具有明显的空间相关性,经济增长和收入不平等对贫困的影响存在门槛效应,政府干预减贫的效果不显著;组间收入不平等比组内收入不平等对减贫产生的负面影响更严重;当经济增长跨越一定的门槛值后,经济增长对减贫的影响呈现边际收益递减特征。
For the relationship between economic growth and poverty, a large number of empirical studies show that if the model uses only economic growth and income inequality to explain poverty, the agreement between the conclusion and the reality lacks stability. The traditional assumption of spatial homogeneity and linearity is difficult to adapt to the complicated relationship between economic growth, income inequality, government intervention and poverty. Therefore, based on the panel data from 1993 to 2011, the paper uses the spatial panel regression model and the threshold panel regression model respectively to investigate the relationship between economic growth, income inequality and government intervention and rural poverty. The results show that the distribution of the poor in China has obvious spatial correlation. The economic growth and income inequality have a threshold effect on poverty, and the effect of government intervention on poverty reduction is insignificant. The income inequality between groups is higher than the income inequality in the group The negative impact of poverty reduction is more serious. When economic growth crosses a certain threshold, the impact of economic growth on poverty reduction shows a diminishing marginal return.