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本文在对2014年国际油价走势进行回顾的基础上,认为2015年第一季度全球经济或延续缓慢复苏的态势,但全球原油供给供大于求的态势保持不变。综合各种风险因素,预计2015年第一季度Brent原油均价为45-55$/bbl,WTI原油均价为40-50$/bbl。而地缘政治因素将是决定2015年第一季度油价波动的主要因素。
Based on a review of the international oil price movements in 2014, this article considers the global economy in the first quarter of 2015 to continue its slow recovery. However, the global supply of crude oil will remain oversupplied. Based on various risk factors, the average Brent crude oil price for the first quarter of 2015 is expected to be 45-55 $ / bbl and the WTI crude oil average price is 40-50 $ / bbl. The geopolitical factors will be the main factor determining the oil price fluctuations in the first quarter of 2015.