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据国际货币基金组织估计,1994年世界商品贸易将增长5％,增幅将是80年代后期以来最大的。 对于1994年世界贸易增长的估计主要是基干西欧及日本经济预期中的复苏。西欧、日本及美国占全球贸易的大部分。 分析家们说,即使世界贸易发展加速,但美国和日本的巨额贸易不平衡可能仍将存在。他们说,虽然1994年美国出口商因其他工业国经济复苏而受益,但美国进口预计将继续上升,因此,1994年美国贸易逆差将再次大幅度上升,1995年可能将进一步上升。 分析家们说,1994年日本将增加进口,部分是对美国及其他政府的要求作出反应,但预计日本出口将继续增长。经济学家们对1994年日本贸易顺差是否将扩大看法不一,但他们都认为日本贸易顺差仍将是非常巨大的。 世界贸易的实际进展将取决于通常的因素（经济增长率、通货膨胀率及汇率）以及北美自由贸易协定和关贸总协定乌拉圭回合贸易协议的实施情况。 北美自由贸易协定照计划在1994年1月1日实施,它可能将在1994年就会刺激美墨双边贸易的大幅度增长,范围广泛的货物关税将立即取消。乌拉圭回合谈判在1993年12月15日结束,它可能将在1995年前开始显著促进世界贸易。 发展中国家特别是亚洲贸易将继续强劲增长。国际货币基金组织经济学家估计,1993年第三世界贸易量将增长?
According to the International Monetary Fund’s estimation, world merchandise trade will increase by 5% in 1994, and the increase will be the largest since the late 1980s. The estimated growth of world trade in 1994 was mainly due to the expected economic recovery in Western Europe and Japan. Western Europe, Japan, and the United States account for the majority of global trade. Analysts say that even if the development of world trade accelerates, the huge trade imbalance between the United States and Japan may still exist. They said that although US exporters benefited from the economic recovery of other industrial countries in 1994, U.S. imports are expected to continue to rise. Therefore, the U.S. trade deficit will once again rise significantly in 1994 and may rise further in 1995. Analysts said that Japan will increase imports in 1994, partly responding to requests from the United States and other governments, but it is expected that Japanese exports will continue to grow. Economists have different views on whether Japan’s trade surplus will increase in 1994, but they all believe that Japan’s trade surplus will still be very large. The actual progress of world trade will depend on the usual factors (economic growth rate, inflation rate and exchange rate) and the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the GATT Uruguay Round trade agreement. The North American Free Trade Agreement is planned to be implemented on January 1, 1994. It will probably stimulate a significant increase in bilateral trade between the United States and Mexico in 1994, and a wide range of tariffs on goods will be immediately eliminated. The Uruguay Round negotiations ended on December 15, 1993, and it is likely that it will start significantly promoting world trade by 1995. Trade in developing countries, especially Asia, will continue to grow strongly. International Monetary Fund economists estimate that trade volume in the third world will increase in 1993?